First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 227.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 227.5 (-110) after it opened @ 226.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the league (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
- The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 65.9 plays per game.
- In this contest, Joe Flacco is forecasted by the predictive model to average the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.1.
- With an exceptional rate of 302.0 adjusted passing yards per game (100th percentile), Joe Flacco stands as one of the leading QBs in football this year.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Browns being a massive 7-point favorite in this game.
- Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 32.7 per game) this year.
- Joe Flacco rates as one of the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 60.3% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the fewest yards in the league (just 179.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Jets defense this year.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New York’s unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
192
Passing Yards
192
Passing Yards
