Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Jaren HallPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Jaren Hall’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (-110) after it opened @ 216.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Jaren Hall.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- The Vikings O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Packers defense this year (72.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 127.9 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Packers, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 33.9 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
