Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are forecasted by the model to run 66.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The predictive model expects Gardner Minshew to attempt 36.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-most among all QBs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
- Gardner Minshew’s 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target this year signifies a significant drop-off in his passing efficiency over last year’s 7.8% mark.
- As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas’s unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
261
Passing Yards
261
Passing Yards
