Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight

C.J. StroudPassing Yards

Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-141/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+110) after it opened @ 257.5 (-113).

Pros

At the present time, the 4th-fastest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With an exceptional tally of 264.0 adjusted passing yards per game (83rd percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the top quarterbacks in football this year.
C.J. Stroud profiles as one of the best per-play passers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 7.77 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 90th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the league against the Titans defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The Texans are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
With a lackluster 61.4% Adjusted Completion% (17th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud places as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the league.
The Tennessee Titans defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards