Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas and are ready for the race to the NBA trade deadline. The season in the Association has a few key dates that define certain parts of the schedule. Deadline day is Feb. 8, and the closer we get to that day, the more pressure there is on teams looking to make a deal.
Teams hoping to trade away a talented player that doesn’t fit their future for draft picks get nervous and start to lower their asking prices. At the same time, teams that feel they are just one player away from the postseason run they crave or even a shot at the title become willing to sweeten their offers. We have to be diligently listening for rumors and thinking about how they impact the locker room and what they tell us about a team’s intentions. We’ve already seen the impact trade talks about Zach LaVine hurt the Bulls and there’s value to be had if we can see those situations coming. For now, we’ve got nine games to get through for this evening. On to the basketball.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans
Current Line – Pelicans -4.5, 229.5
My Projection – Pelicans 119, Grizzlies 110
Key Injuries – Marcus Smart is questionable.
So, are the Memphis Grizzlies as good as they’ve been in their three games with Ja Morant, as bad as they were without him, or somewhere in between? In Morant’s first game, the Grizzlies were 8.5-point underdogs playing against these Pelicans in New Orleans and Memphis won 115-113 on a game-winning basket by Ja himself. The Grizzlies then defeated the Pacers by 13 and the Hawks by 14. Based on those games, the sportsbooks have decided to adjust the spread by four points from what it was a week ago. I agree that the line should be adjusted, but by a point, maybe two, and certainly not as many as four. The win against New Orleans was more of a Pelicans loss than a Grizzlies win. New Orleans led by 10 after three quarters and played a pitiful final frame. Wins by 13 and 14 are always good, but I don’t rate them very highly when they are against the Pacers and Hawks who have played poorly for the last few weeks. The Pelicans are fully healthy — as I’ve written before, when everyone is playing, they are one of the best teams in the NBA. Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado are more than capable of guarding Ja Morant and did a decent job in the last matchup despite how it ended. I make New Orleans nine-point favorites and unless they plan to give up 38 points in the fourth quarter and blow a double-digit lead, I think they’ll cover the current spread of 4.5 comfortably. I generally don’t subscribe to the “revenge” or “zig zag” theories I’m sure you’ve heard from a lot of others, but even I expect the Pelicans to take the Grizzlies more seriously than they did a week ago. I’m betting New Orleans -4.5 and would play it as high as -6.
Bet
New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets
Current Line – Rockets -3, 238
My Projection – Rockets 120, Pacers 114
Key Injuries – Bruce Brown is out.
Something is wrong in Indiana. They started the season 12-8 and were the darling of the early part of the season, but they are just 2-6 since losing the NBA In-Season Tournament Final to the Lakers. They averaged 128 points per game before that game, down to 120 points per game since. 120 is obviously a lot of points, but scoring 8 points less per game is a big drop and one that makes it hard for them to win games. Indiana succeeded by scoring more than their opponents and not by keeping their opponents from scoring less points than them. They have continued to allow their opponents to score a lot of points, but unfortunately can’t seem to score a lot of points themselves. Their shooting efficiency is down, and they look timid on the court, holding on the ball instead of launching three pointers like the first part of the season.
Tuesday, they play a Rockets team that has dominated at home by forcing their opponents to play their slow, grinding style of basketball. No matter how fast a team plays normally when they enter the Toyota Center in Houston they slow down to the pace of the Rockets. The Sacramento Kings failed to score 100 points in either of their two games in Houston. The Denver Nuggets averaged only 95 points in their two nights against the Rockets. I think the Pacers will get to triple digits, but certainly not as many as 118 points. As crazy as this would have sounded in November, that was a long time ago, and I’m betting an Indiana Pacers team total under 117.5.
Bet
Indiana Pacers Team Total Under 117.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Current Line – Jazz -3, 242
My Projection – Jazz 125, Spurs 118
Key Injuries – Victor Wembanyama is questionable.
The Spurs are as happy as any team about the Detroit Pistons’ losing streak, because it is drawing attention from how poorly they have played. They have won just one of their last 23 games. In those 22 losses, their margin of defeat has been 15 points on average. The Spurs look to be tanking as they’ve been especially bad to end games by not playing their best lineups. It is in their best interest to have one of the three worst records in the NBA, which gives them the best chance at having the No. 1 draft pick for the second year in a row. Their top pick from the last draft is questionable tonight and seems unlikely to play even though he is a game time decision.
The Jazz are finally healthy, have a much better roster, and are actually trying to win basketball games. It’s hard to trust the Jazz away from Utah where they have one of the better home court advantages thanks to the altitude. Keyonte George and Jordan Clarkson have been better than expected and make a backcourt pairing good enough to not sink the frontcourt. Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler are playing better than last season and players like Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio have been positive contributors. It’s not a playoff contender, but Utah’s roster isn’t bad and certainly is much better than San Antonio’s even if the Spurs wanted to win. I make the Jazz seven-point favorites and could make a case the spread should be even larger than that. I might even add an alternate spread if Wembanyama is announced in, but we’ll have to wait for that. If I make that bet, I’ll be sure to put in the #nba-plays channel of the FTNBets Discord. For now, I’ll happily bet the Jazz -3 even at -115. If you only have -3.5 -110, that’s fine too.
Bet
Utah Jazz -3 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons -6.5, 230.5
After betting on the Pistons in their last game, I really want to bet on them again — if they win this game and I don’t have a bet on it, well, I won’t be happy. That’s a terrible reason to make a bet and I’m going to let reason prevail. Jalen Duren is back for Detroit, which should help, but my prices are in line with the market. I planned on typing some more, but the more I think about this game the more I want to bet the Pistons and, remember, that’s an idea, but I’m just going to stop now and definitely not bet the Pistons.
Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards +7.5, 238.5
The Magic have struggled the last two weeks after a great start to the season. They were top five in defensive rating at the beginning of December, but they just been 11th since. Their rating went from 109 to 115, which is a big change and has led to many of their recent losses. Despite that, they deserve to be big favorites over Washington, but I can’t trust them to cover this spread, especially since they play at home against Philadelphia tomorrow. The Wizards are always capable of an outlier performance from beyond the arc that could swing things so far they might even win. My projections show a little value on Orlando and the under, but I can’t trust the Magic to be their best and I’m afraid the Wizards might be at their best.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder -2, 228
This should be a great game and a preview of playoff series to come, but I can’t find any value in the prices. The Thunder are a great team, especially at home, but Minnesota is a tough matchup. Chet Holmgren will have to best Rudy Gobert, who is among the top contenders for Defensive Player of the Year. There are not many players who can slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Jayden McDaniels is one of them. Things are tough for the Timberwolves as well. They may be without Karl-Anthony Towns who unlocks the full potential of their offense and has found a way to contribute on defense. One of Minnesota’s few weaknesses is their depth and one of the Thunder’s great strengths is their depth. It’s going to be a great game to watch, but I can’t advise that we bet anything.
Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls +1, 235
This game is close to what my model spit out, and there are a few key plays whose status is unsure. Jalen Johnson is questionable to play his first game in weeks. It’s been a surprise to see how his absence has affected Atlanta. They’ve sorely missed his defense and shooting on offense. Saddiq Bey has failed to replace his contributions and with JJ back, the Hawks are about two points better in my opinion. Trae Young is also questionable. If both players are in, I show value on the Hawks up to -2.5, but even if we get that chance, I’m not sure I’m pulling the trigger. It’s hard to value players in their first game back and the Hawks, as I mentioned earlier, have been mired in defeat. I’m not betting on them, and I show no value in the Bulls, so that means no bets at all here.
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers +8, 237
This came out close to my projections, and I don’t see a matchup or schedule angle to attack. It’s an interesting contrast of styles. The Kings love to push play and play fast while the Trail Blazers have slowed down their pace and try to keep the possession count low. For bad teams like Portland, it is best to play because that maximizes the potential for short term positive variance and minimizes the opportunity the better team has to let their advantage win the day. If you’re going to play Portland, I think there’s value in putting their spread in a parlay with the under because the game will need to be slow if they are to cover. If you’re going to play Sacramento, I think there’s value in putting the spread in a parlay with the over because the Kings will need the game to be fast to cover such a big number. No bets for me, but keep that in mind if your handicap favors either side.
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers -12, 228
Kawhi Leonard is questionable, and that is ruining all of our potential fun. With him in the lineup, I would be looking to play a Clippers team total over and maybe even laying the 12 points, but without Kawhi, I cannot. The Hornets are starting to figure out how to play without LaMelo Ball. They are still losing games, but they’ve found a way to generate offense without their star player and could easily cover such a large spread with a late flurry of points against LA’s bench players. Keep an eye on the FTNBets Discord for a wager if Kawhi ends up playing, but there’s nothing to bet for now.
