Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-114).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to accrue 19.2 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.6% in games he has played).
Travis Etienne has averaged 65.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (90th percentile).
Travis Etienne’s ground effectiveness (5.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (85th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.7% run rate.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The New York Jets defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.15 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
93
Rushing Yards