Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-120) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
- After comprising 1.9% of his team’s run game usage last year, Jerome Ford has been more involved in the running game this year, now comprising 39.5%.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to run on 39.5% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- This year, the weak Texans run defense has been gouged for a whopping 3.48 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 32nd-worst rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
