Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jerome Ford from EV Insight

Jerome FordRushing Yards

Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-120) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
After comprising 1.9% of his team’s run game usage last year, Jerome Ford has been more involved in the running game this year, now comprising 39.5%.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league last year at opening holes for runners.

Cons

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to run on 39.5% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the weak Texans run defense has been gouged for a whopping 3.48 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 32nd-worst rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards