Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- In this contest, Travis Kelce is projected by the projection model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.6 targets.
- Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Travis Kelce has compiled a whopping 62.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among tight ends.
- This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the league.
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 10.5 points.
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Travis Kelce’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a substantial reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 80.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
