Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chargers vs. Bills
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 12.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to run on 44.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- In this week’s game, James Cook is projected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 79th percentile among running backs with 15.0 carries.
- James Cook has been a much bigger part of his offense’s ground game this season (49.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
Cons
- As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year.
- James Cook’s 5.0 adjusted yards per carry this year signifies a meaningful drop-off in his rushing prowess over last year’s 5.8 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
