NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Saints
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 254.5 (-115) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
- Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
- The model projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- Matthew Stafford’s 252.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a significant improvement in his passing ability over last year’s 220.0 mark.
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- Matthew Stafford’s 61.3% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive decline in his passing accuracy over last year’s 65.3% mark.
- This year, the stout Saints defense has allowed a paltry 62.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.77 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in football.
- The New Orleans cornerbacks rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
