Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 254.5 (-115) after it opened @ 248.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
The model projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford’s 252.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a significant improvement in his passing ability over last year’s 220.0 mark.

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Matthew Stafford’s 61.3% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive decline in his passing accuracy over last year’s 65.3% mark.
This year, the stout Saints defense has allowed a paltry 62.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.77 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in football.
The New Orleans cornerbacks rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards