Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 10th-most run-focused offense in the league (41.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Lions.
- The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
- Among all RBs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 78th percentile for carries this year, taking on 40.9% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
- Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (92nd percentile).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.84 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, Minnesota’s unit has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 4th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
