Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).

Pros

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.1% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Denver O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
With a terrific 59.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (81st percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton stands among the top pass-catching WRs in the league.
Courtland Sutton’s 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a significant progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 59.4% mark.

Cons

This game’s spread suggests a running game script for the Broncos, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects the Broncos as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see only 124.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Courtland Sutton has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards