NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Broncos vs. Patriots
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.1% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- The Denver O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- With a terrific 59.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (81st percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton stands among the top pass-catching WRs in the league.
- Courtland Sutton’s 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a significant progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 59.4% mark.
Cons
- This game’s spread suggests a running game script for the Broncos, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The model projects the Broncos as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see only 124.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.
- The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- Courtland Sutton has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
