Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-112) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 10.5 points.
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The model projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 16.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- Isiah Pacheco’s 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a substantial improvement in his rushing skills over last year’s 50.0 mark.
- This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders run defense has yielded a whopping 126.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to run on 39.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Las Vegas’s DE corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
