Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As we head to Week 16 of the NFL season, we’re down to the last three weeks in the Circa Millions NFL picks contest. My best lineup is currently tied for 13th:
You can see how close we all are, with Saint31-1 having an impressive two-point lead over second. Now that we’re near the finish, it’s time to talk game theory strategy and prizes. Below are the prizes for the Circa Millions. As you can see, it’s fairly top heavy with just 100 (out of over 5,000 entries) getting paid. First gets a million, but 100th gets just $2k.
My current position would net me about $40k, but that can move drastically with a few correct or incorrect picks versus everyone out. It can go down to $10k or less pretty easily, but it can also go to $300k or higher (even if I can’t catch Saints31-1).
So, should I play it safe and try to make sure I don’t lose? Try to make picks that have a slightly higher chance of winning even if they prove to be popular?
Ha — have you read any of my DFS articles? Of course I’m shooting for a top-five finish. I’m going to make picks that I think others likely won’t pick to give myself a unique path. The first thing I will do is actually make a pick for the Thursday game since most people want to wait to submit their picks until the last minute to see if they can get stale lines. Also, when possible, I’ll give preference to half point lines since they increase the variance by eliminating the chance of a tie and a half point. Here are a few of the sides I’m looking at choosing:
Week 15 Circa Millions Picks
New Orleans Saints +3.5
The Rams have looked scorching hot lately, but the Saints have done their job and beat up mercilessly on the Giants and Panthers. They also kept it close with the Lions, but no one wants to give the Saints or Derek Carr especially any credit. The Saints have a better point differential than the Rams, and their total DVOA is 4 spots higher. I like the Saints Thursday.
Los Angeles Chargers +12.5
The Bills look like their unstoppable selves. The Chargers are in disarray with Justin Herbert out and just got embarrassed by the freaking Raiders. So, naturally I choose to bet on a close-ish game for the Chargers. This is essentially their Super Bowl. Easton Stick‘s situation also reminds me of when Tommy DeVito and the Giants got annihilated by the Cowboys after his first start and then he went on to beat the Commanders (and then the Patriots and Packers to boot!).
Baltimore Ravens +5.5
In what may be a preview of the Super Bowl, the two teams with the top DVOAs are pitted against each other Christmas evening. I mentioned last week that I think the Ravens are sneakily the strongest team in the league, and I was able to make a futures bet on them while in Arizona for the FFWC. I also like them with 5.5 points on the road this week against the 49ers.
