Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Broncos vs. Patriots
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 7th-most run-centric team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.5% run rate.
- In this game, Ezekiel Elliott is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 16.7 rush attempts.
- Our trusted projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to be a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this week (63.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.0% in games he has played).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (151 per game) versus the Broncos defense this year.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, Denver’s collection of DTs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
- With a dreadful rate of 3.40 adjusted yards per carry (10th percentile) this year, Ezekiel Elliott rates as one of the weakest pure rushers in the NFL at the position.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
