Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Panthers vs. Packers
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (+100) after it opened @ 10.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.2 per game on average).
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Tommy Tremble’s ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 62.0% to 80.0%.
- The Packers pass defense has shown bad efficiency against tight ends this year, giving up 9.09 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 53.7% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- Tommy Tremble’s 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 17.3.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
