Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
Durham Smythe’s 71.4% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a noteworthy gain in his passing game utilization over last season’s 27.1% rate.
After totaling 5.0 air yards per game last season, Durham Smythe has seen a big uptick this season, now sitting at 14.0 per game.
Durham Smythe has accumulated a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).
With a fantastic 81.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (85th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe stands among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends.

Cons

At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
The Cowboys defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 44.0) versus tight ends this year.
This year, the formidable Cowboys defense has conceded a feeble 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards