NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Cowboys
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate.
- Durham Smythe’s 71.4% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a noteworthy gain in his passing game utilization over last season’s 27.1% rate.
- After totaling 5.0 air yards per game last season, Durham Smythe has seen a big uptick this season, now sitting at 14.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe has accumulated a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).
- With a fantastic 81.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (85th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe stands among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends.
Cons
- At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Miami Dolphins.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.4 per game) this year.
- The Cowboys defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 44.0) versus tight ends this year.
- This year, the formidable Cowboys defense has conceded a feeble 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-best rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
