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Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D’Onta Foreman from EV Insight background

Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D’Onta Foreman from EV Insight

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December 22, 2022

Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D’Onta Foreman from EV Insight

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FTN Staff

D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards

Player Props – Week 16

Panthers vs. Lions

Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 51.5 (-139) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

O/U 51.5
-110/-120

O/U 51.5
-110/-110

O/U 51.5
102/-139

O/U 51.5
-115/-120

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to accumulate 16.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
D’Onta Foreman has received 44.7% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Detroit Lions defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 4.98 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 52.9 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards

Previous NHL Prop Bets with Chris Meaney (12/22) Next Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Rashid Shaheed from EV Insight

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