NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Rashid ShaheedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Browns vs. Saints
Right now, Rashid Shaheed’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-125) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. WRs this year, yielding 8.76 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the league.
- The Cleveland Browns safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
