Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this game, Tyler Conklin is anticipated by our trusted projection set to rank in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.
With a terrific 36.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (80th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin ranks among the leading pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
This year, the strong Washington Commanders defense has given up a puny 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-best in football.
This year, the imposing Commanders pass defense has yielded the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a meager 4.2 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards