Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (+105) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.8% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
In this game, D.J. Moore is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.9 targets.
D.J. Moore has put up many more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (90.0 per game).
D.J. Moore has posted many more adjusted receiving yards per game (77.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).
D.J. Moore’s ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 57.7% to 74.4%.

Cons

The Bears are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Bears to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see only 126.7 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards