Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jaylen Warren from EV Insight

Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards

Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-140/+110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-140) after it opened @ 39.5 (-110).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Jaylen Warren has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this season (32.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.3%).
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
Jaylen Warren’s 42.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season reflects a material progression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 23.0 rate.
This year, the tough Cincinnati Bengals run defense has allowed a meager 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 26th-best rate in the NFL.

Cons

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The projections expect the Steelers to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards