Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demario Douglas from EV Insight

Demario DouglasReceiving Yards

Right now, Demario Douglas’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-112) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).

Pros

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
In this week’s contest, Demario Douglas is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.
The leading projections forecast Demario Douglas to be a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
This year, the shaky Broncos defense has surrendered the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a monstrous 8.91 yards.
The Broncos pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Cons

The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Demario Douglas rates among the leading WRs in the league in the NFL in the open field.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards