Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy Friday and Merry Almost Christmas! I love Christmas with the NBA, but we’ve still got a few more days’ worth of basketball before we get there. Every team has the day off Sunday, so Friday and Saturday are jam-packed.
Several teams will be playing back-to-backs or three games in four nights. Be very careful to check each team’s schedule situation and hold off on betting too early if the game involves a dubious injury report or the potential of a surprise rest spot for a star. This can be a messy part of the NBA year, so step carefully. Thankfully for you, I’m here to guide you through the morass.
Let’s take a look at every game and see what key factors bear considering and where value might lie in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Friday you can watch the video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Please check it out and give me a thumbs up for Christmas. I’m worried Santa Claus will forget.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Current Line – 76ers -8.5, 230.5
My Projection – 76ers 121, Raptors 108
Key Injuries – Nicolas Batum is out.
The 76ers have been crushing teams, and I think they’ll do it again here. The Raptors come to Philadelphia after a four-game homestand and return home immediately to play the Utah Jazz Saturday. That makes this a bad schedule for the Raptors. Teams tend to shoot poorly in their first road game after a long streak of games at home. It’s hard to adjust to the new surroundings immediately. This is Philadelphia’s third consecutive game at home, and they have off all weekend before their Christmas game in Miami. The Raptors have lost eight of their last 11 games. Any improvements to their offense from late November are gone, and the defense hasn’t been even close to the level we’ve come to expect from Toronto in year’s past.
Friday they face two players they lack the appropriate tools to defend. Joel Embiid is threating to win his second straight MVP trophy, and that train should continue to roll down the tracks here. Jakob Poeltl has the size, but not the athleticism and he’s the only player on Toronto taller than 6-foot-9 who will play. Tryese Maxey is the market favorite to be the Most Improved Player for this season and seems like an easy pick to be an All-Star. Dennis Schroder once had the athleticism to guard a player like Maxey, but it’s been a few seasons since we’ve seen that level from him. Toronto has a lot of good wing defenders, but none fast enough to stay in front of Maxey. It’s a bad schedule spot and a bad matchup for the Raptors. I project the 76ers to win by 13 and the current spread is only 8.5. You can play that -8.5 at -110, but DraftKings was nice enough to offer us -9 at +100. That half-point difference is not worth that difference in price, so I’ll happily sell it and “risk” a push if Philadelphia wins by exactly nine points. In general, this is a good idea whenever you have the chance. The instances of a push are so rare, that long term you’ll have a better ROI if you can sell half a point to a full number for +100.
Bet
Philadelphia 76ers -9 (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets
Current Line – Rockets -8.5, 223
My Projection – Rockets 116, Mavericks 105
Key Injuries – Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively, Josh Green, Dante Exum and Maxi Kleber are out.
The Rockets have played great basketball at home. Everyone season there is one or two teams that have a much better home record than road. For whatever reason, those teams are better able to dictate pace and style in their home surroundings. The Rockets play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA and can drag teams down into the muck with them at home. Opponents have averaged just over 100 points per game in Houston. Friday, they face what’s left of the Dallas Mavericks. If you haven’t already, please take a moment and read through the key injuries I listed. Four of five starters are not playing for the Mavericks as well as two key reserves.
It’s very hard to properly project a team like the Mavericks. They will be playing several players who generally don’t play and lineups that have never played together. There’s just not enough data available for to forecast Dallas tonight with great accuracy, but I’m still very confident the Mavericks are not going to score 108 points if they even score 105. Tim Hardaway is the best scorer they have, and the second best is … Grant Williams? It could be Jaden Hardy, but I’m not sure who that is. Hardy was apparently drafted in the second round in 2022 and did score 15 points against the Clippers, but I think I’ve made my point by now. There’s very little shooting, distributing, or general scoring talent among the players they are forced to use. I’ll happily bet the Mavericks team total under 107.5 and may add some alternate lines as well later. Once those markets are open at more books, I’ll add those bets in the FTNBets Discord if/when I make them.
Bet
Dallas Mavericks Team Total Under 107.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets +4.5, 230
This is the first night of a back-to-back for both teams, and that’s the reason I’m hesitant to back the Nuggets, even in the first quarter. Denver does things differently in back-to-back games. They tend to rest players and play more lax in the first game so that everyone is fresh for the second game. Most of the league does the opposite. That makes it difficult to handicap Denver in these spots. I show a little value on the Nuggets and the under, but not enough to make a bet given the situation.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat -1, 238.5
Both teams are missing key pieces. The obvious one is Jimmy Butler not playing for Miami. The other, Jalen Johnson, is being proven to be more and more important with each Atlanta Hawks letdown performance without him. Johnson was knocked out of the lineup with an injury Nov. 25. Atlanta is 4-8 in the 12 games since, and it’s clear they miss his defense and shooting as a power forward. I make this game -1 as well and am honestly quite happy to avoid betting it. I hate backing the Heat without Butler and backing Atlanta has been miserable. Let’s leave this game alone.
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings -3.5, 243.5
I show an edge on the under and the Kings here, but those don’t really jive with one another. Said a different way, if the Kings cover this number the game is more than probably going over the total. In general, overs have been great this season. You would be up over 17 units if you bet every single game over so far this season. That likely means a wave of unders is coming. It takes time, but books adjust and generally end up over adjusting before finding the proper balance. I’ve been waiting patiently to bet unders, and this is as close I’ve come. Phoenix’s pace has been very slow, but without Jusuf Nurkic they may have to speed things up and as mentioned, Sacramento might just be fast enough on their own. Well, long story long, but no bets for me in this game.
Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors -12, 247
Jordan Poole is returning to Golden State! Unfortunately, we’ll miss the awkward interactions with Draymond Green, who remains suspended, but I’m optimistic that Poole will play a game that would make Nick Young blush. If only we could bet shot attempt overs, but alas, the books are not offering that option. The spread and total are within a point or two of my own projections, so I don’t see an edge anywhere worth attacking. Golden State could cover that number easily, but the Warriors have struggled with fast teams and could lose the spread later. No bets for me.
