Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

A passing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
With respect to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.41 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
The projections expect Terry McLaurin to notch 7.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
After averaging 88.0 air yards per game last season, Terry McLaurin has been rising this season, now averaging 99.0 per game.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.3 per game) this year.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 67.4% to 59.7%.
Terry McLaurin’s 7.8 adjusted yards per target this year represents a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last year’s 9.9 rate.
Terry McLaurin’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, totaling a measly 3.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.84 rate last season.
The Jets defense has conceded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 97.0) to wideouts this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards