Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- A passing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -3-point underdog this week.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
- With respect to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.41 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
- The projections expect Terry McLaurin to notch 7.5 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- After averaging 88.0 air yards per game last season, Terry McLaurin has been rising this season, now averaging 99.0 per game.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.3 per game) this year.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 67.4% to 59.7%.
- Terry McLaurin’s 7.8 adjusted yards per target this year represents a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last year’s 9.9 rate.
- Terry McLaurin’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, totaling a measly 3.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.84 rate last season.
- The Jets defense has conceded the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 97.0) to wideouts this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
