Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-118) after it opened @ 26.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- This week, Tanner Hudson is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 76th percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
- After averaging 10.0 air yards per game last year, Tanner Hudson has produced significantly more this year, now boasting 25.0 per game.
- Tanner Hudson’s 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 11.7.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
- With a poor 3.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) this year, Tanner Hudson has been as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
