Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tanner Hudson from EV Insight

Tanner HudsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Tanner Hudson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-118/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-118) after it opened @ 26.5 (-113).

Pros

The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
This week, Tanner Hudson is anticipated by the predictive model to rank in the 76th percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
After averaging 10.0 air yards per game last year, Tanner Hudson has produced significantly more this year, now boasting 25.0 per game.
Tanner Hudson’s 26.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 11.7.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
With a poor 3.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) this year, Tanner Hudson has been as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards