Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 9th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by the model to call 67.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 7th-most in football.

Cons

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Chris Olave stands as one of the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL in the open field.
The Rams pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (55.8%) to wide receivers this year (55.8%).
The Rams pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 7.33 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards