Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s TNT Tuesday, and I’m excited not only for the best studio show in sports, but also some fascinating basketball games. How will a team without its top draft pick play on the road against one of the better teams in the East that’s playing better each night? A star returns to a team that needs him dearly, but the game is on the road against one of the scariest teams in the West. There’s a double player revenge game and an NBA Finals rematch. What more could we ask for on just one night?
It would be great if the NBA could do something like this on Thursday nights so we wouldn’t have to watch awful football games. Oh well, maybe someday we’ll get what we want. Let’s dive into those games, answer some of those questions, and see where value might lie in the betting markets.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks
Current Line – Bucks -16.5, 249.5
My Projection – Bucks 133, Spurs 115
Key Injuries – Victor Wembanyama is out.
This game will either be the biggest or tie for the biggest spread in the NBA this season. These same Milwaukee Bucks closed -16.5 hosting the Detroit Pistons just a few days ago. It’s hard to think any team should every be favored by almost 17, but the Bucks covered that 16.5 easily, and I have them favored by 18. Without Wembanyama, San Antonio might actually be worse than the Pistons.
Milwaukee has been playing better and better with every passing week. Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo are becoming more comfortable with each other, and you can see the fruits of that labor with the recent offensive surge. There is work left to be on defense, but that’s less of a problem when you can score 120-plus almost every night. The Bucks deserve to be huge favorites, but the problem is that we are now looking at an “outlier” game. Said another way, there are hardly ever games involving a team that is a 15-plus-point favorite which makes it hard to know what to expect when that happens.
I show some value on Milwaukee, but there’s too much risk of them playing a down fourth quarter, allowing the Spurs to cover late. I lean to the under, but as I’ve written here before, blowouts are terrible for unders. The angle I am betting in this game is in the first quarter market. The Spurs have been one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread in the first 12 minutes of the game. Tanking and/or terrible teams are generally good bets early in games. Better teams often overlook them and can start slow knowing they can win comfortably even if they lose the first frame. There is also the benefit of tanking teams playing well to start before packing it in to guarantee the loss late. San Antonio is +5.5 in the first quarter, which is one of the biggest spreads for that period this season. I make it closer to +3.5 even without Wemby, so let’s bet it. Maybe the Bucks score 40 to start and never look back, but without the motivation of facing the No. 1 pick, Milwaukee could come out flat. Either way, 5.5 is too much, so it’s a bet.
Bet
San Antonio Spurs 1Q +5.5 (-104, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans -7, 228.5
Ja Morant is back! It will be his first game after being suspended to start the season. Will he play with rage and fervor to remind us all of how great he is, or will he be rusty and out of game shape after a long layoff from game action? I tend to believe the former and not the latter, but Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado might be good enough defenders to stop him. There’s also the problem of how the rest of the Grizzlies react to the first game with their high usage leader on the court. I wanted to bet the Pelicans, but Zion Williamsons is questionable. If Zion is out, I make the spread Pelicans -5 and if Zion is in, I make the spread -10. I expect the market to end up at the same numbers, but if they don’t I’ll be this when we know for sure about Zion. I’ll put that bet in the FTNBets Discord channel if I make it.
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers -7.5, 231
It’s revenge nights for Jusuf Nurkic and Deandre Ayton! Did that work? I’m really trying to find a way to be excited by this game. The Suns offense has been wildly efficient, but their pace has slowed down making both unders and overs hard to bet. They’re deservingly big favorites, but Portland is playing much better the last few weeks. Everyone is healthy so they have finally have some shooting, and they’ve slowed down their pace making defense easier. I lean under and Blazers, but my numbers like over and the Suns. That means I’m not betting anything.
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors +5.5, 235
This rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals could be a great game, but it’s not a great game to bet right now. Draymond Green is out and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. If KP can’t play, this should be a fast, high scoring affair since neither team has another big man to dominate down low and slow the pace. If Porzingis plays, his points over and 3-pointers made over props are good looks. He’ll have the size to shoot over any GSW defender. Look in the FTNBets Discord #nba-plays channel for those plays if Porzingis is announced in, but no bets for now. The full game numbers are all within a point of my projections.
