Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may pass less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Nick Mullens.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- This week, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 8.0 targets.
Cons
- T.J. Hockenson’s talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a measly 3.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 figure last season.
- This year, the daunting Lions defense has allowed a feeble 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-smallest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
