Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings may pass less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Nick Mullens.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 64.4% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
This week, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 8.0 targets.

Cons

T.J. Hockenson’s talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a measly 3.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.18 figure last season.
This year, the daunting Lions defense has allowed a feeble 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards