Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Stefon Diggs to accrue 9.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With an impressive 29.8% Target% (97th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
As it relates to air yards, Stefon Diggs grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among WRs this year, accumulating a monstrous 104.0 per game.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being an enormous 12.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Stefon Diggs’s 78.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 90.0 rate.
Stefon Diggs’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 72.7% to 67.1%.
Stefon Diggs’s 8.1 adjusted yards per target this year represents a significant drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year’s 9.6 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards