First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Rashee RiceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-120/-100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Rashee Rice to total 9.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- The predictive model expects Rashee Rice to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack in this game (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.0% in games he has played).
- With an impressive 62.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (83rd percentile) this year, Rashee Rice stands as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in football.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.2%) versus wideouts this year (69.2%).
Cons
- This week’s line implies an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 10.5 points.
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
