First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Broncos vs. Patriots
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Patriots, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The Broncos defense has been gouged for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (66.0) versus tight ends this year.
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a colossal 9.14 yards.
- As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver’s collection of LBs has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
Cons
- The Patriots have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Mike Gesicki has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (30.0 per game).
- The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
