Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Ty ChandlerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Ty Chandler’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Ty Chandler to be much more involved in his team’s rushing attack in this week’s game (56.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (29.5% in games he has played).
- Ty Chandler’s ground effectiveness (4.42 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings may pass less in this week’s game (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Nick Mullens.
- The model projects the Vikings to be the least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 35.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Detroit Lions defense has produced the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.88 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- The Detroit Lions defensive ends rank as the 5th-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
