Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Wilson from EV Insight

Michael WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-145) after it opened @ 32.5 (-119).

Pros

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.
With an elite 83.1% snap rate (85th percentile) this year, Michael Wilson stands among the running backs with the highest volume in the league.
Michael Wilson has received a staggering 23.2% of his team’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Wilson profiles as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a terrific 9.65 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Cons

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projections to run only 63.3 total plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards