Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Seahawks
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s spread indicates a passing game script for the Titans, who are -3-point underdogs.
- In this contest, Chigoziem Okonkwo is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a more important option in his team’s passing attack this year (15.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (10.8%).
- After averaging 21.0 air yards per game last year, Chigoziem Okonkwo has undergone big improvement this year, now averaging 32.0 per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (54.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Tennessee Titans to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the Titans to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 6.3 adjusted yards per target this season marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving skills over last season’s 9.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
