Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh DownsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Josh Downs’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a massive 60.3 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Josh Downs ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a fantastic 71.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
- This year, the stout Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a mere 124.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-fewest in football.
- This year, the strong Falcons defense has surrendered a mere 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
