Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Michael WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Cardinals
Right now, Michael Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-145) after it opened @ 32.5 (-119).
Pros
- At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.
- With an elite 83.1% snap rate (85th percentile) this year, Michael Wilson stands among the running backs with the highest volume in the league.
- Michael Wilson has received a staggering 23.2% of his team’s air yards this year: 77th percentile among wide receivers.
- Michael Wilson profiles as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a terrific 9.65 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 81st percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projections to run only 63.3 total plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Arizona offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
