Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Mayer from EV Insight

Michael MayerReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-114) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.
Michael Mayer has been on the field for 59.4% of his offense’s snaps this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
With an impressive 8.5 adjusted yards per target (85th percentile) this year, Michael Mayer has been as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.
Michael Mayer has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an excellent 6.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The projections expect the Raiders to be the 6th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.2% pass rate.
As far as a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per play, the model projects the Raiders as the 3rd-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 43.0) vs. tight ends this year.
This year, the strong Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a measly 6.7 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards