Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Michael MayerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Michael Mayer’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-114) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are big -10.5-point underdogs.
- Michael Mayer has been on the field for 59.4% of his offense’s snaps this year, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- With an impressive 8.5 adjusted yards per target (85th percentile) this year, Michael Mayer has been as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.
- Michael Mayer has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an excellent 6.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The projections expect the Raiders to be the 6th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.2% pass rate.
- As far as a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per play, the model projects the Raiders as the 3rd-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 43.0) vs. tight ends this year.
- This year, the strong Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a measly 6.7 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
