Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 42.5 (-115) after it opened @ 45.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews’s 68.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 61.7.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in football (64.0) to TEs this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (74.4%) versus tight ends this year (74.4%).

Cons

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 45.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Mark Andrews has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (57.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards