Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-111/-123).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-123) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).

Pros

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 3.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Logan Thomas has run fewer routes this year (64.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 60.8%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards