Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-127) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to total 4.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry has notched quite a few less air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry’s 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards