Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-115) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (68.5%) vs. TEs this year (68.5%).
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
