Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Keenan Allen has been among the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 70.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Cons

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 133.0) versus WRs this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, yielding 7.72 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards