Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-135) after it opened @ 64.5 (-119).

Pros

The projections expect the Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (97.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.4%).
The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (191.0) to WRs this year.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
Garrett Wilson has been one of the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 6.75 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 13th percentile when it comes to wide receivers
With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places among the top pass-catching wide receivers in football in space.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards