Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Commanders
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-135) after it opened @ 64.5 (-119).
Pros
- The projections expect the Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
- At just 27.18 seconds per play, the Jets offense grades out as the 10th-quickest paced in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (97.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.4%).
- The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (191.0) to WRs this year.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Jets are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
- Garrett Wilson has been one of the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 6.75 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 13th percentile when it comes to wide receivers
- With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places among the top pass-catching wide receivers in football in space.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
