Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-109/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-109) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The predictive model expects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 7.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has posted far more air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (89.0 per game).
This year, the porous Bengals defense has given up a whopping 177.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-most in football.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Steelers to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Diontae Johnson checks in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 58.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among WRs

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards