First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-109/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-109) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- The predictive model expects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 7.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson has posted far more air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (89.0 per game).
- This year, the porous Bengals defense has given up a whopping 177.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 4th-most in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the Steelers to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Diontae Johnson checks in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a mere 58.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile among WRs
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
