Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Houston Texans defense has been gouged for the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (57.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
After accumulating 45.0 air yards per game last year, David Njoku has regressed heavily this year, now boasting 33.0 per game.
David Njoku’s 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a material decline in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 77.2% mark.
David Njoku’s 6.9 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a significant decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 8.9 figure.
The Texans pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards