Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The model projects the Browns to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 65.8 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Houston Texans defense has been gouged for the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (57.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Browns are favored this week, implying more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
- After accumulating 45.0 air yards per game last year, David Njoku has regressed heavily this year, now boasting 33.0 per game.
- David Njoku’s 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a material decline in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 77.2% mark.
- David Njoku’s 6.9 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a significant decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 8.9 figure.
- The Texans pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
